Dave Schroeder’s ‘Fast 5 Pack Facts’: Packers vs. Rams

Get in the know and ready to go with the ‘Fast Facts’
Published: Jan. 15, 2021 at 9:48 PM CST
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GREEN BAY, Wis. (WBAY) - As the Green Bay Packers (NFC’s #1 seed) get set to host the Los Angeles Rams (NFC’s #6 seed) in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, it’s time to get in the know and ready to go with the ‘Fast Facts.’

#1) Top Offense vs. Top Defense: The Packers own the #1 scoring offense in the NFL while the Rams own the #1 scoring defense. This is the 5th time in the last 20 years that such a showdown has played out in the postseason. And the defense has won out in 3 of the last 4 meetings.

But Green Bay should still feel ultra-confident thanks to its domination of situational football. The Packers had an 80% success rate scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That was the best red zone mark of any offense in the last 40 years! And Green Bay has been even better of late, scoring TDs 91% of the time they’ve reached the red zone the last 3 games.

Furthermore, on 3rd down, the Packers converted 49.4% of the time this season. That was 2nd-best in the NFL this season (Buffalo 49.7%), but was the 3rd-best third down conversion rate of the last decade.

#2) My New QB metric (TD: INT+SACKS): We all know Aaron Rodgers dominates the TD:INT ratio. But I have developed a new metric that goes 1 step further in assessing passing game success. I added in sacks to the equation for TD: INT+ SACKS.

Interceptions obviously kill drives, but sacks are drive-killers as well.

It shouldn’t surprise you to learn Rodgers was the best in the NFL this year with a 1.92 ratio (48 TD pass / 5 INT + 20 sacks). And guess what? This week’s opponent, Jared Goff, has the worst ratio of any quarterback left in the playoffs (0.56). Goff threw only 20 TD’s this year with 13 INT and 23 sacks taken.

#3) Adams vs. Ramsey: The Packers WR scored 18 TD’s this season. But the Rams defense gave up only 17 passing TD’s the entire season. It will be strength vs. strength when WR Davante Adams matches wits with CB Jalen Ramsey. Both are at the top of their games. Ramsey often travels with opposing receivers to the left or right sides of the field. But Ramsey rarely defends in the slot. That could be an opening for Adams, who runs routes from anywhere and everywhere on the field

#4) Aaron Jones Under The Radar?: With Rodgers throwing 48 TD passes, Davante Adams catching 18 scores, and Robert Tonyan scoring 11 times, it was easy to overlook Aaron Jones. But the Packers’ RB had a career high with more than 1,100 rushing yards and still scored 11 times. He could be the deciding factor Saturday. AJ (Aaron Jones) and A.J. Dillon (the rookie RB) could pave the way for Green Bay.

#5) LaFleur vs. McVay: Packers coach Matt LaFleur meets his former mentor, Sean McVay, for the first time as head coach of the Packers. LaFleur got the Green Bay gig two years ago in large part due to his relationship as with the Ram’s wunderkind coach (who is still only 34 years old). LaFleur was McVay’s offensive coordinator in L.A. back in 2017.

Prediction: Packers 31, Rams 13

As always, tune in to Sunday Sports Night Cover 2 at 10:35 pm for the best postgame coverage in the business. We will, of course, also have highlights and reports on Action 2 News Saturday night after the game.

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